IERPP cautions GoldBod: Ghana gold export math discrepancy explained

Ghana’s gold export figures for April 2025 raise serious questions. The government allocated $279 million to buy gold from small-scale miners, yet reported $897.6 million in exports, a 220% increase in revenue.

This breakdown examines whether the math adds up or if hidden factors explain the discrepancy.

Simplified Math Breakdown

What $279 million can actually buy?

• Gold Price (April 2025): $96,560 per kg
• Calculated Purchase:
  $279,000,000 ÷ $96,560/kg ≈ 2,890 kg (2.89 tonnes)

Problem:
Ghana exported 9,295 kg (9.295 tonnes)—6.4 tonnes more than the fund could buy.

Government’s Promise vs. Reality

• Promised Purchase: 3 tonnes/week = 12 tonnes/month
• Actual Export: 9.295 tonnes
• Missing Gold: 12 – 9.295 = 2.7 tonnes

Contradiction:
Even the promised 12 tonnes exceeds what $279M could buy (only 2.89 tonnes).

Revenue Mismatch

• Expected Revenue (from $279M fund):
  2.89 tonnes × $96,560/kg = $279M (just breaking even).
• Actual Export Revenue: $897.6M
• Discrepancy: $897.6M – $279M = $618.6M extra

Question:
Where did the additional $600M+ come from?

Possible Explanations

1. Other Gold Sources: Large mining companies contributed (not small miners).
2. Old Stockpiles: Sold stored gold from reserves.
3. Exchange Rate Trick: Cedi depreciation inflated dollar earnings.
4. Overstated Numbers: Misreporting or creative accounting.

The numbers do not logically align. If the government only spent $279M, the exports should have been $279M, not $897M. The $600M+ gap suggests:

• Unreported gold sources, or
• Inflated export figures.

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