Global Chocolate Prices to Stay High Amid Cocoa Supply Constraints in Ghana and Ivory Coast

Chocolate prices around the world are projected to remain high, with only a possible easing expected in 2026. While factors such as rising labor costs, tariffs, general retail inflation, and elevated cocoa bean prices are contributing to the surge, analysts say the biggest pressure comes from persistent supply constraints in West Africa.

Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world’s two largest cocoa producers, continue to face significant challenges. Years of underinvestment, coupled with pest outbreaks and weather disruptions, have tightened cocoa supply, making it difficult for manufacturers to meet global demand. These structural issues mean that even if other conditions improve, chocolate prices are expected to stay elevated for the foreseeable future.

Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC that ongoing issues in Ghana and Ivory Coast will keep cocoa prices at historically high levels. “Historically high cocoa prices could support chocolate prices,” he said, underscoring the structural pressures on the market.

Cocoa prices reached record highs in late 2024, peaking at over $10,000 per metric ton, compared with just over $2,300 three years earlier. Such unprecedented levels created major challenges for chocolate manufacturers, who struggled to absorb rising costs while keeping retail prices competitive. Many companies passed these costs onto consumers, contributing to higher chocolate prices worldwide. Smaller producers, in particular, faced squeezed profit margins, forcing some to scale back production or delay product launches.

Retail prices reflect this trend. In 2024, the average cost of a standard-sized candy bar in the U.S. ranged from $1.25 to $1.75, while premium products saw notable increases. For instance, a 6 oz. bag of Lindt milk chocolate truffles rose from $5.69 to $5.99, and a 10.8 oz bag of Hershey’s Kisses increased from $4.89 to $5.49. In 2025, prices continued to rise, with some king-size candy bars increasing by over 13% compared to the previous year. Shrinkflation, reducing product sizes while keeping prices steady, has also affected consumers, effectively raising the cost per unit.

In Ghana, the impact of rising cocoa prices is also evident. Earlier in 2024, the cost of cocoa beans hit record highs, with prices peaking at $10.97 per kilogram in April. By December, cocoa futures soared, reaching $11,441 per tonne in London and $11,545 per tonne in New York. As a result, the price of a large chocolate bar in Ghana rose from 15-18 cedis in January 2024 to around 45 cedis by June. In 2025, the retail price of chocolate in Ghana ranges from US$7.52 to US$21.21 per kilogram (or US$3.41 to US$9.62 per pound) and between GHS 80.87 and GHS 228.09 per kilogram (or GHS 36.68 to GHS 103.44 per pound) in Accra and Kumasi, depending on the brand and quality.

While chocolate companies grapple with these high costs, the historic price surge was initially seen as a windfall for cocoa farmers in Ghana, offering higher earnings amid years of underinvestment and supply challenges. However, that optimism faded after the government announced new producer prices, which many considered insufficient. Reports indicate that some Ghanaian farmers threatened to block national regulator officials from their farms, arguing that the new rates could encourage smuggling to neighboring Ivory Coast and Togo, where prices are higher.

This dispute highlights a longstanding challenge in the cocoa sector: farmers often do not receive the full economic benefits of their produce, as much of the revenue is absorbed by intermediaries and structural inefficiencies. The result is lower incentives for production, which can eventually reduce supply.

Cocoa futures have recently eased to below $7,500 per tonne, reaching their lowest level since mid-July, as rain forecasts in Ivory Coast eased some supply concerns, triggering long liquidation. However, historic cost pressures remain, including limited cocoa bean availability, the inflationary effects of last year’s record cocoa prices, and rising production costs.

Even with some easing in weather-related risks, these structural and cost factors suggest chocolate prices are likely to remain high for the rest of 2025.

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