Ghana’s Unemployment Rate to Remain at 3.1% in 2025, But Underlying Challenges Persist – Fitch Solutions

Ghana‘s headline unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.1% through 2025 and 2026, according to a new report by Fitch Solutions’ Country Risk team. However, the seemingly low rate masks a deeper set of structural issues within the Ghanaian labour market that continue to weigh on the country’s economic resilience and social fabric.

Fitch’s projection signals a continuation of the gradual upward trend observed since 2017, suggesting that while unemployment may appear stable, underlying vulnerabilities in labour quality and workforce sustainability remain unaddressed.

“A significant constraint stems from the country’s low life expectancy, estimated at just 64.3 years, which dampens the productive capacity of the labour force,” the report stated.

The short life expectancy, Fitch notes, is a result of chronic underinvestment in public healthcare and a persistent burden of waterborne diseases and illnesses such as HIV/AIDS. These health challenges erode long-term productivity and workforce stability.

Compounding the issue is a widening skills gap. The report highlights a growing reliance on expatriate professionals across key sectors, as the local talent pool struggles to meet demand for highly skilled labour. This talent deficit limits Ghana’s ability to drive innovation and growth from within.

Contradiction with Local Data

Fitch’s unemployment forecast stands in stark contrast to data published by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS). According to the GSS Q3 2023 Labour Statistics report, Ghana’s average unemployment rate for the first three quarters of 2023 stood at a significantly higher 14.7%. The report also underscored persistent gender and urban-rural disparities:

Gender Gap

Female unemployment has consistently outpaced male rates, with the gap widening through 2023.

Urban-Rural Divide

Urban unemployment was nearly double that of rural areas in Q2 and Q3 of 2023.

These discrepancies raise questions about the methodology used in various labour statistics and highlight the complexity of capturing Ghana’s employment realities, particularly in an economy heavily marked by informality and underemployment.

Ghana’s job market is a flashpoint for public discontent. A recent 2024 Afrobarometer survey identified unemployment as the top national concern, ranking higher than infrastructure deficits and healthcare gaps. This sentiment reflects deep frustration, particularly among the youth, who face limited prospects for formal employment despite high education levels.

“While the unemployment rate may appear modest by international standards, the data masks underemployment and informality both of which are endemic in Ghana’s economy,” the Fitch report warns.

Indeed, a vast portion of Ghana’s working population also remains trapped in low-income, informal jobs with little social protection or upward mobility.

Amid these structural imbalances, Fitch advocates for long-term reform to boost employment opportunities and create a more inclusive economy. Public sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with support for government-led initiatives aimed at improving access to education, healthcare, and job opportunities. However, Fitch warns that without meaningful change, Ghana’s potential demographic dividend may become a demographic burden.

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