Ghana’s Strong Q1 Growth Compels Fitch Solutions to Revise 2025 Growth Target Upward from 4.2% to 4.9%

Ghana’s economy continues to bask in a favourable outlook as Fitch Solutions has again revised its 2025 growth target from 4.2% to 4.9%.

This new revision is significantly ahead of the government’s own projection in the 2025 budget, which forecast a 4.4% growth for the fiscal year.

Fitch Solutions says this favourable revision of Ghana’s full-year real GDP growth was prompted by a stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first quarter of 2025.  

Fitch Ratings, a member of the Fitch Group, focused on credit ratings of entities, financial instruments, and governments, has earlier upgraded the country’s creditworthiness. With the revised growth target, Ghana’s renewed economic outlook has been deepened, offering hope for businesses and Ghanaians.

The report cited by The High Street Journal explains that the upward revision follows a solid 5.3% year-on-year growth recorded in Q1, primarily driven by improved agricultural output and aided by a strengthening cedi, which has helped ease inflationary pressures.

Fitch says this early boost positions Ghana’s economy for a more resilient performance through the rest of the year despite ongoing fiscal headwinds.

Fitch Solutions noted that while high interest rates, fiscal consolidation measures, and plateauing oil production may temper momentum in the latter half of 2025, the economy is still poised to perform better than earlier projected.

Despite the threat to this growth target, Fitch expressed optimism that the cooling inflation and the strengthening cedi will favourably drive growth for the rest of the year.

“We have revised up our 2025 real GDP growth forecast for Ghana from 4.2% to 4.9%, following a stronger-than-expected Q1 outturn of 5.3% y-o-y, underpinned by improved agricultural outputs. Easing inflation – helped by a stronger exchange rate – will support growth over the remainder of the year, although fiscal consolidation, high interest rates, and plateauing oil production will cause the economy to slow from the robust 5.7% recorded in 2024,” Fitch Solutions remarked.

Giving a sneak peek into the 2026 economic outlook for Ghana, the research firm projected a robust 5.0% growth forecast, which is likely to be driven by further disinflation to sustain economic expansion.

“In 2026, we expect growth to remain robust at 5.0%, driven by lower inflation,” the firm forecasted.

These double positive endorsements, analysts say, offer a powerful narrative of economic recovery and resilience.

 For businesses, the positive sentiment is likely to improve investor confidence, ease access to credit, and create more predictable operating conditions. Lower inflation also means reduced input costs, potentially translating into better margins and lower prices for consumers.

On the broader economic level, an upgraded credit rating could allow the government to borrow at lower costs, freeing up resources for critical infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Additionally, the stronger cedi and improved fiscal credibility enhance Ghana’s attractiveness to foreign direct investors, particularly in agribusiness, fintech, and energy.

For ordinary Ghanaians, these developments offer cautious optimism. More stable prices, a stronger currency, and improved investor confidence could lead to job creation and enhanced livelihood opportunities over the medium term.

However, expectations must be managed as persistent structural issues, such as public debt sustainability and youth unemployment, must be addressed to maintain the current momentum.

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