Finance
A Gradual Looming Upset: Ghana’s 2nd Spot in Cocoa Production Under Threat
After Ghana’s spot as the largest cocoa producer in the world in the world was overtaken by its neighbour, Cote D’Ivoire, pushing the country to number two, it appears that this second spot is also under threat. Ghana’s crown as the second largest producer is under pressure, not from any West Afr...
The High Street Journal
published: Aug 26, 2025

After Ghana’s spot as the largest cocoa producer in the world in the world was overtaken by its neighbour, Cote D’Ivoire, pushing the country to number two, it appears that this second spot is also under threat.
Ghana’s crown as the second largest producer is under pressure, not from any West African country, but a country in Asia, Indonesia.
While Ghana’s production is slumping, Indonesia, although gradually, is steadily gaining momentum through a methodical rebuilding of its cocoa sector.
Fresh figures from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) show Ghana tumbling from 654,000 tonnes in 2022/23 to 530,000 tonnes in 2023/24, before a tentative recovery to 600,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
However, Indonesia, by contrast, is climbing in the same period, from 160,000 to 180,000 and 200,000 tonnes over the same period.
The gap, the gap admittedly, remains large, but the direction of travel is staggering. While Ghana is dipping, Indonesia adds tonnage year after year.

The USDA recognizes this trend and has given the country the warning lights. It has also noted the three straight seasons of decline to 530,873 tonnes in 2023/24, its worst in 15 years, before a possible rebound this season. While the USDA sees a possible rebound as high as 700,000tonnes, ICCO is more conservative at 600,000tonnes.
This shows that Ghana’s recovery is not yet guaranteed.
Why Ghana is Vulnerable
Diseases, notably cocoa swollen-shoot virus, erratic weather, illegal mining, and financing strains have battered farms and yields. Many cocoa farms in the country are under threat as a significant portion of the cocoa farms have been lost to the illegal mining menace, widely known as galamsey.
The World Bank also recognizes the financial distress of the cocoa production management body, the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), and how it is impacting the activities in relation to production.
With these threats, the rebound and the spot of Ghana as the second largest producer is not guaranteed.
Global observers, including ICCO and Reuters, tie Ghana’s slump to the historic supply crunch that sent cocoa prices soaring.

Why Indonesia is Crawling Up
While Ghana is inching downwards, Indonesia’s output is inching upwards, although it is far below Ghana’s. Irrespective of the gap, the country is growing, posting double-digit year-on-year gains.
This is a result of investing in farm rehabilitation, training, improved clones, and cooperative finance. If those efforts scale, Indonesia’s 200,000-ton baseline can rise further.
The Wake-Up Call
Could Indonesia overtake Ghana soon? Not on current numbers. Even at 200,000tonnes, Indonesia is still roughly one-third of Ghana’s about 600,000tonnes ICCO forecast.
But if Ghana backslides again and Indonesia keeps compounding, the distance narrows and Ghana’s position looks less secure than it did just a few seasons ago. This is an indication that the competitive field is moving fast.

What Ghana Must Do Now
Ghana, in order to maintain its spot, must deploy drastic measures to eradicate and replant aggressively against swollen-shoot; fund pruning, inputs, and extension at scale.
The illegal mining threat must be tackled head-on. There is a need to shield cocoa lands from illegal mining and enforce traceability to unlock premium markets.
The financial constraint of both COCOBOD and farmers must be stabilized so farmers can invest despite volatile prices and shifting weather.
The Bottomline
Indonesia isn’t about to overtake Ghana tomorrow. However, the combination of Ghana’s fragilities and Indonesia’s steady rebuild makes complacency on the side of Ghana dangerous.
The race is now about who can keep producing when the climate, pests, and capital all turn against you. Ghana still leads Indonesia by a wide margin; keeping it that way will require relentless efforts. Failure on the side of Ghana will result in the overtaking by Indonesia or Ecuador, as Côte d’Ivoire snatched the first spot.
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